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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds

To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.

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Blackjack rules say that when your first two cards are identical, you may split them to create two different hands. Knowing when to split your dealt hand is an important element of taking the edge away from the casino and back in your favor. For example, the two hands you ALWAYS split are a. Blackjack Odds Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds. To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack.

Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack

In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.

By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.

Probability of Busting on a Hit

It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:

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Hand Value% Bust If You Hit
21100%
2092%
1985%
1877%
1769%
1662%
1558%
1456%
1339%
1231%
11 or Less0%

Two-Card Count Frequencies

This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.

Two Card Count% Frequency
Natural 214.8%
Hard Standing (17-20)30.0 %
Decision Hands (1-16)38.7%
No Bust26.5%
TOTAL100.0%

Dealer Final Hand Probabilities

This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.

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Dealer Final Hand Value%Cumulative % Total
Natural 214.82%4.83%
21 (3 or More Cards)7.36%12.19%
2017.58%29.77%
1913.48%43.25%
1813.81%57.06%
1714.58%71.64%
1628.36%100.00%

Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card

The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.

Dealer Up CardDealer Bust %Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy
235.30%9.8%
337.56%13.4%
440.28%18.0%
542.89%23.2%
642.08%23.9%
725.99%14.3%
823.86%5.4%
923.34%-4.3%
J,Q,K21.43%-16.9%
A11.65%-16.0%

Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck

When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.

Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.

Card% Effect of Removal
20.40%
30.43%
40.52%
50.67%
60.45%
70.30%
80.01%
9-0.15%
10-0.51%
A-0.59%

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Blackjack

Game Type: Card - B

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Supplies:

Alkohol Blackjack Poker

Alkohol
  • Alcohol
  • Deck of cards
  • Players (enough to make it interesting)

Instructions

Some knowledge of how to play Blackjack is helpful. Play is just like regular blackjack, with number cards being worth their numbers (deuces worth two, nines worth nine, ect), face cards worth 10, and aces worth either 1 or 11, the goal being to reach 21. Deal passes to the left. Dealer must hit on 17 and freeze on 18.
The drinking rules are as following.
1) if a player busts, he must drink.
2) if any one player gets a blackjack (a face card and an ace) everyone else must drink.
3) If a person builds up to exactly 21, then they pick who drinks.
4) Winner of hand picks who drinks, if no one builds up to 21.
After deal passes around the table once, it is almost a guarantee that the number of players will have doubled, at least in your perceptions.

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Credit

Jack Gardner